Causal models and theories of change put forward by different scientific communities within sustainability transformations research.

Aim

This research aims to shed light on what we know about how transformative change emerges and why it often fails. We will assess the causal assumptions and claims different communities make about what enables or hinders transformative change and how. Causal assumptions, which often remain implicit, are important because they influence what strategies or actions for transformative change are considered.

Theoretical Frameworks

We will elicit the causal reasoning of different schools of thought using the CoMap tool (Hertz et al. 2024) which views causal reasoning as constituted by the analytical focus, frameworks and theories, ideas about causation, methods and causal notions of an approach and the entry point (i.e. the element which is chosen first). We also distinguish between causal reasoning for explanatory purposes (causal models) and for action (theories of change).

Methodological Approach

Review of key literature on transformation of different scientific communities and the IPBES transformative change assessment

Lead: Maja Schlüter

Collaborators: The Transmod team