Box 1: Anticipating changing climates: strengthening resilience capacities

Restoring riverine systems in eThekwini, South Africa

The eThekwini Municipality, which includes the city of Durban (South Africa), has experienced significant flooding. In the early 2000s, Durban invested in climate adaptation efforts through its Municipal Climate Protection Programme, which gained cross-party political support because it linked climate adaptation with urban development. This initiative led to the development of the Transformative River Management Programme (TRMP), a long-term initiative to restore and manage over 7,000 km of Durban’s rivers. The goal was to mitigate flood risk, enhance water supply, and strengthen ecological health. It was the municipality’s adaptive capacity that supported its efforts to restore Durban’s river ecosystems and finance the construction of more robust bridges and drainage systems. However, because of the large-scale nature of the challenge and high levels of poverty, significant investment in transformative capacity was also needed. This meant bringing together diverse actors, including government agencies, community groups, and the private sector, to reimagine how local water systems could be managed differently. Actions included addressing the complex interdependencies between environmental and socio-economic risk. Local community members were capacitated to improve riverine ecosystems before flood events. Economic opportunities around water management were created. To reduce the loss of life during significant flood events, early warning systems were improved. Future priorities were strategised and planned collectively. When flooding occurred in the area in 2022, several of the urban settlements involved in the TRMP experienced lower levels of disruption compared with those that had not been involved.

Returning residential land to nature in Staten Island, New York

After Hurricane Sandy caused widespread damage to the north-eastern United States in 2012, New York City (USA) initiated an ambitious, though controversial, effort to transform coastal areas at risk from future storms fuelled by climate change. The state offered voluntary buyouts to homeowners in flood-prone communities, including an entire neighbourhood in Staten Island. Residents agreed to the buyout and relocated to a safer area. This former residential land has now been returned to nature. The state-funded programme purchased qualifying properties at their pre-storm market value. Neighbourhoods like Oakwood Beach were then restored to wetlands, dunes, and parkland with the idea that these areas would act as a natural storm buffer. This major social-ecological transformation relied on anticipatory capacity, aligning social and economic vulnerability with political will and scientific assessment. Together, these abilities drove a landmark shift: restoring natural ecosystems while protecting vulnerable communities from future storm damage.