2. Resilience requires balancing the capacities to cope, adapt, and transform

The three capacities for resilience: coping, adapting, transforming

Resilience means coping with and navigating shocks and changes (see Must-Know #1) to enable systems to persist. This sometimes requires the ability to adapt to change or transform. Strengthening the resilience of systems that promote sustainability and justice requires a solid understanding of resilience’s three core capacities: coping, adapting, and transforming (Box 1).

Coping capacity

Coping capacity is a system’s ability to persist, or cope, by withstanding and recovering from shocks without major disruption. It is about protecting what matters most during a crisis so that life can carry on while avoiding a complete breakdown. A forest may regrow after a fire if its core ecological functions remain intact. A household can weather a drought with savings or strong support networks. Families often use emergency funds to buy food or repair property after a flood or drought. They may also rely on insurance, social transfers, or loans to buffer the impacts of crises, such as crop failures or medical emergencies. Social support networks— friends, family, or community organisations— can play a crucial role by offering shelter, food, or resources during events like hurricanes or economic downturns.

Coping capacity can also mean resisting unwanted changes. For example, many of Earth’s life-supporting systems—like the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), the polar ice caps, and the Amazon rainforest—need to maintain their ability to cope with human-caused disturbances in order to persist as they are. If they cross dangerous tipping points, the result could be irreversible shifts in the Earth’s climate and other natural conditions not seen for millions of years. Such changes would spell tragedy for the earth’s human population and its natural ecosystems. For many marginalised communities, coping capacity means preserving ancestral practices or community bonds to protect against new or imposed pressures. Such forms of resistance are themselves important expressions of resilience.

Adaptive capacity

Adaptation means adjusting to new conditions while keeping the system’s core functions intact. Adaptive capacity allows systems to learn and evolve in response to changing conditions.

Farmers, for example, adapt to climate change by switching to drought-resistant crops or diversifying income sources to reduce vulnerability to climate-related shocks. Cities can develop and implement early warning systems, heat-health action plans, or green infrastructure to reduce their risks from extreme weather events. After floods or earthquakes, municipalities can update their zoning regulations or disaster preparedness plans, showing how flexible organisations are able to reorganise, learn from experience, and adopt new strategies for managing disruption in the future. Adaptive capacity can be strengthened by disseminating knowledge, improving access to information and teaching new skills. Educational campaigns, community- based adaptation projects, or organisational learning initiatives can all help people respond proactively to shifting conditions.

Transformative capacity

Sometimes, systems need more than minor adjustments if they are to be fit for constructing a more desirable future. In some cases, they need to fundamentally change. This is especially true when existing systems reinforce unjust and unsustainable trajectories or are no longer suited to new risk landscapes.

Transformation involves rethinking and redesigning how societies function, including how resources are used, how decisions are made, and how humans and nature interact. Phasing out fossil fuel dependence, reforming institutions that perpetuate inequality, or shifting to circular economies that regenerate rather than exploit, will require a creative reimagining of how things might be done. Designing new forms of transportation or reconfiguring consumption habits can forge a pathway towards the transformation of society and how it works.

Transformation is the hardest form of resilience to foster. While adaptation keeps current systems ticking over, transformation seeks to reconfigure existing relationships and power structures in new ways. Making this happen requires bold leadership, imagination, and inclusive collaboration (see Must-Know #9).

Balancing act: tensions, trade- offs, and synergies

As strategies, coping, adaptation, and transformation are deeply interconnected. Their interactions can produce positive synergies, create tensions, or imply trade-offs.

Coping can stabilise a system and give it time to adapt. Adaptation can extend the lifespan of a system through gradual adjustments. But without transformation, harmful or unsustainable systems are likely to persist. The choices different people, countries, and sectors make to prioritise one type of response over another can cause conflict with other parts of the system. For example, building flood protection in one part of a city may safeguard local residents but increase flood risks for those living farther downstream. Strengthening resilience means anticipating such trade- offs and managing them so that one group’s resilience does not come at the expense of another’s (see Must-Know #7).

Resilience capacity does not just need to be balanced within human systems. There are also important trade-offs to be made between human society and nature. For example, maintaining the coping capacity of Earth’s life- supporting systems, like the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, requires transformative changes to social and economic systems, including shifting away from practices that drive climate and ecological breakdown.

Look ahead to build resilience

Resilience capacities are not static. They need to be continually tested, reimagined and developed. Ensuring resilience capacities are fit for purpose requires the foresight to anticipate possible new shocks and future changes (see Must-Know #4). While we cannot predict the future, we can create space for strategic imagination, reflection, learning, and collaborative preparedness—all of which are activities essential for inclusive transformative processes.

Visioning and scenario planning can help organisations and societies map, explore, and build different resilience capacities. These tools can help to unlock creativity and strengthen collective agency. They support adaptive management by allowing societies to test strategies, monitor the results, reflect on the outcomes, and then adjust their actions accordingly.