1. Resilience is critical for navigating accelerating risk

Earth resilience at risk

For the past 12,000 years, the Earth’s climate has been relatively stable. This period, known as the Holocene, allowed for human civilisations to flourish. Human activity is now the main force shaping the Earth’s climate and its ecosystems, ushering us into the Anthropocene. Resource use, pollution, biodiversity loss, and emissions are all increasing exponentially. With seven of the nine planetary boundaries breached, we are crossing into unsafe territory for people and the planet. Intensifying climate and weather extremes are pushing forests, the ocean, and ice sheets close to tipping points. If crossed, these could trigger irreversible damage, threatening the foundations of humanity. Nature has buffered many human impacts: the ocean has absorbed around 90% of excess heat from rising greenhouse gas emissions, and marine and terrestrial ecosystems have captured roughly half of human CO₂ emissions. This is Earth resilience. But this safety net is fraying. Early reports show that the natural systems humans depend on are under severe strain.

When shocks ripple across systems

As Earth resilience erodes, the complexity of our deeply interconnected world allows risks to multiply and spread across systems. Shocks from extreme weather, disease outbreaks, or geopolitical crises have spread across sectors and borders, disrupting ecosystems, economies, and infrastructure in unexpected ways. Inter- connectivity makes crises harder to manage and makes resilient systems more important than ever. Resilient systems help us prepare for uncertainty, cope with shocks, and avoid crossing critical tipping points.

Catastrophic events, such as Hurricane Katrina in 2005, the 2019–20 Australian bushfires, and the COVID-19 pandemic from 2020–2023, show what can happen when governance systems are not prepared for the ripple effect of an unexpected event. For example, the COVID-19 pandemic began locally but quickly overwhelmed national healthcare systems and strained supply chains, particularly when it collided with other crises, such as locust swarms and flooding in the Horn of Africa. Global supply chains were also disrupted when the container ship Ever Given blocked the Suez Canal for six days in 2021. Both events had serious consequences for individuals, enterprises, and nations. The most vulnerable parts of the world are often those that are worst affected. Such crises show that a hyper-connected world is also a fragile one.

Resilience as necessity and opportunity

Our rapidly changing planet and hyperconnected world are moving us into a new risk landscape. This is why resilience is essential. Resilience helps societies learn from crises, PAGE 6keep options open, and navigate the volatile conditions of the Anthropocene. Navigating this new landscape requires the adoption of systemic and forward-looking resilience strategies.

Resilience is necessary for strengthening capacities to cope, adapt, and transform in the face of change (see Must-Know #2).

Resilience can be specific to one type of disruption (e.g., flood preparedness in a city) or it can be general (the ability to handle a wide range of challenges). Importantly, specific and general resilience do not always go hand in hand. When resilience-building becomes narrowly focused on a particular disturbance, the strategy may work in the short term, but it runs the risk of causing the system to lose resilience in other ways. For example, research on rice-farming systems in Nepal and Spain shows how a narrow resilience focus on addressing relatively predictable social and environmental fluctuations has made the rice production sector vulnerable to other longer-term social-ecological changes.

Resilience does not just happen on its own. Governance systems should acknowledge the complexity of ecosystems, communities, and institutions, and act accordingly. While preparing for the unexpected, decision-makers need to be able to manage trade-offs (see Must-Know #7) and navigate competing values and goals. In addition to thoughtful management, resilience requires sustained attention and sufficient resources. In the absence of an immediate threat, policymakers may not recognise a future risk. In communities, ecosystems, and institutions alike, unused resilience capacities tend to fade because efficiency in the short term often trumps medium- to long-term preparedness. Fostering resilience for future crises takes planning and deliberate action. It is not passive or automatic but must be actively cultivated before we need it—waiting until then is too late.

Desirable and harmful resilience

While resilience is most often seen as a desirable property, the resistance of some systems to change—like industrial agriculture or fossil fuel economies—provides evidence for the harmful effects of resilience. Powerful political or economic groups or influential organisations with vested interests may prefer to protect the status quo and resist change, even if it reinforces inequality and social and ecological degradation. Recognising “undesirable” resilience makes it possible to focus attention on actively supporting systems, such as democratic institutions, equitable food systems, and healthy ecosystems, that can help drive social and ecological sustainability.

A century ago, the world’s response to war, influenza, and economic depression produced both progressive transformations like welfare states and regressive ones like fascist regimes. Today’s compounding crises—climate change, environmental degradation, geopolitical conflict, and risks from emerging technologies like artificial intelligence—also create conflicting forms of resilience. We must learn how to strengthen the resilience of systems that promote sustainability and justice and transform or dismantle those that harm people and the planet.